It’s a snowy Saturday morning here at Monarch Mountain and should continue into the late afternoon adding 1-2 inches today. Temps are in the low teens and winds in the 20-30mph range with some gusts in the high 40s today. Snowfall should cease overnight as relative humidity drops just outside the threshold for precipitation. Sunday, I see marginally light snow return on the tail-end of Northwest flow as winds die down. This will continue to bring cold air into the state with highs in the low teens again. Snow totals for Sunday are minimal, 0-1 inch. There might be something for Tuesday then a break mid week and another storm towards the end of the work week.
Observing Jet Stream analysis for the next 48hrs, Northwest flow moisture dips into the Four Corners region. We won’t see much from this disturbance. Monarch does not benefit from NW flow, we get blocked by the West Elks range hence why the “Butte” and Aspen zones benefit from NW flow inducing orographic snowfall over those zones. The NOAA CPC long term outlook for South-Central Colorado is looking really good with higher than average precipitation and below or near average temps! We are still in an El Nino watch. In October, there was a 70-75% chance of El Nino. November El Nino Forecast has increased to 80% chance. I hope to see the December El Nino forecast increase even closer to 100%. Keep our fingers crossed.
A short recap of November, Monarch has had 38 inches for SNOWvember! That is two-thirds of our year-to-date snowfall this season and we opened a week early!! Since then, it has kind of felt like the longest 3 weeks, but that is ok cause we are out skiing and you should be too!! Hopefully December is one to remember! All we need is 3 inches of snow a day for an above average on a 100-120 day season.
A little update since I started this forecast… I’ve had to sweep the Ski Patrol deck 4 times since 8am! That should mean something to you! If anything, it means it’s snowing harder than forecasted. So let’s up the totals for today to the 3-5 inches range.
Pray for snow!!