R2 is one of our patrollers. He is so passionate about weather that in his spare time, prior to a storm, he studies several forecast models to create a personalized forecast for Monarch Ski Patrol. Now he brings that forecasts to you, the public. Delve into R2's unpredictable, feverish mind...if you dare.
Richard Rogers, R2
First off, congrats to those valiant folks who tackled the Great Divide Grinder! #meatsweats.
#3weeksleft is what we were told this morning. Well, its been one hell of a season. Storm after storm after after storm, then long stint of sunshine, and now out like a lion, kinda.
Lets get down to it cause R2 has Ahi Tuna steaks about to grill when I’m done with this or before….
5-15 SSW winds tonight…. 5-20 N-NNE tomorrow-tomorrow night… this is getting weird and making me weary. Tonight temps in the low 20s accompanied by a SSW wind but not a ton moisture. So monday night 1-2″.
Tomorrow with the temps right at freezing and light winds out of the North but with a ton of moisture, 1-3″ tomorrow day and tomorrow night I’m just not sure… Its supposed to upslope but the light NNE winds will keep the snow on all aspects including the valley. Wet heavy snow. My skepticism is in a brawl between large blob of moisture and light upslope winds. Four corners low….. But its spring time and anything can happen. #weathernevertakesarest
Models are showing H20 amounts quadrupling tomorrow just before sweep. From sweep tuesday till opening on wednesday, the most current model run(1800) shows 20+” of snow. Com’ on Man! Do you see my “mental pickle”? Ugh, 5-15″ maybe… Its gotta be in the 5-8″ range Tuesday night cause of the upslope. Sangres are going to get obliterated, potentially. Even the Ark River Valley is looking at 1-4″ Tuesday night.
So I took a break for a couple hours and now it is raining outside here in BV(930pm). Within 40mins it is now a graupel/ rain mix. What can I say its spring time in the rockies! This tells me its still relatively warm but cooling at 12,000ft.
Im back to not believing the WRF Point forecast. This would be one of our biggest storms of the season. 20+” in 15hrs. 11hrs of 1-2 inches of snow per hour.
Lets talk about it tomorrow. I have confidence in whats happening monday night and tuesday AM.